Investigating structure and temporal scale in social organizations using identified individuals

Studies of individually identified animals can produce substantialdata sets containing information on the structure and temporalscale of social organizations. However, methods of analyzingsuch data are not well established. Important features of asocial organization are revealed by plotting the rate of persistenceof the associations between pairs of individuals over a rangeof time lags (lagged association rate). The consistency of long-termrelationships can be characterized using the rate of associationof pairs of individuals between their first and last observedassociations (intermediate association rate). A hierarchicalseries of models featuring exponentially decaying lagged associationrates may be fitted to these data. This technique retrievedthe essential parameters of five simulated social organizationsand, when used on real data, portrayed the essential featuresof the patterns of temporal change in relationships betweenanimals. The method should be especially useful for analyzingfissionfusion societies containing 10–10, 000 individuallyidentifiable animals.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

基于多尺度协同的长沙市生态网络构建与层级优化

城市化背景下人类与自然环境的矛盾呈现出多尺度、层级化特征，而传统生态网络的构建方式较少考虑不同尺度下生态要素的关系，无法从区域落实到中心城区，难以形成系统性的解决方案。研究在综合梳理各尺度生态网络构建方法的基础上，以长沙市为例，基于形态学空间格局分析（Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis，MSPA）、景观连通性原理和生态斑块重要性评价识别生态源地，并通过多层级生态阻力面的确定，综合运用最小费用路径（Least-cost path method，LCP）、电路理论、层级传导理论、尺度嵌套等方法对市域、都市区、中心城区的生态网络进行了协同构建和层级优化，最后基于不同尺度生态网络的特点应用并落实到多层级的国土空间规划体系中。研究结果表明：（1）长沙市域生态网络和都市区生态网络具有较好的层级嵌套特征；共识别两尺度生态叠合源地14个、生态叠合廊道15条，主要通过中心城区内的湘江、浏阳河和捞刀河部分河段与外围生态绿圈相衔接，形成"外环内楔"的空间格局。（2）确定市域重要廊道、市域潜在廊道、生态叠合廊道、都市区重要廊道、都市区潜在廊道的核心保护面积共501.14 km²，并提取位于生态廊道核心保护区范围内的生态夹点和生态障碍点，以进一步落实生态保护修复策略。（3）得到具有重要生态连通功能的中心城区生态绿道长度441.2 km，生态修复单元56个，并结合生态阻力值划分为5级进行针对性修复。（4）基于不同尺度生态网络的衔接、嵌套，最终构建"市域总体生态安全格局-都市区城市生态空间发展格局-以城市绿道为基础的中心城区生态修复单元"，并与不同层级的国土空间规划体系相对应。研究结果将为以大城市为中心的跨尺度生态系统修复和生态安全格局构建提供科学参考。     

Negative density-dependent emigration of males in an increasing red deer population

In species with polygynous mating systems, females are regarded as food-limited, while males are limited by access to mates. When local density increases, forage availability declines, while mate access for males may increase due to an increasingly female-biased sex ratio. Density dependence in emigration rates may consequently differ between sexes. Here, we investigate emigration using mark-recovery data from 468 young red deer Cervus elaphus marked in Snillfjord, Norway over a 20-year period when the population size has increased sixfold. We demonstrate a strong negative density-dependent emigration rate in males, while female emigration rates were lower and independent of density. Emigrating males leaving the natal range settled in areas with lower density than expected by chance. Dispersing males moved 42 per cent longer at high density in 1997 (37 km) than at low density in 1977 (26 km), possibly caused by increasing saturation of deer in areas surrounding the marking sites. Our study highlights that pattern of density dependence in dispersal rates may differ markedly between sexes in highly polygynous species. Contrasting patterns reported in small-scale studies are suggestive that spatial scale of density variation may affect the pattern of temporal density dependence in emigration rates and distances.     

Local host competition in the evolution of virulence

The evolution of parasite life histories should usually have correlated effects on host survivorship and/or reproductive success. For example, parasites that reproduce more rapidly might be expected to cause greater reductions in host fitness. Important theoretical advances have recently been made on virulence evolution, but the results are not always consistent. Here I compare two models [ Q. Rev. Biol. 71 (1996) 37 ; Q. Rev. Biol. 75 (2000) 261 ] on the evolution of virulence that get qualitatively different results with respect to the effects of coinfection. I also construct a third model that attempts to connect these two formulations. The results suggest that parasite growth rates should increase as local host competition increases, unless relatedness is at equilibrium. In addition, the qualitative effect of adding coinfections on parasite growth rates depends critically on how the number of coinfections affects transmission success.     

Response of fishes and aquatic habitats to sand-bed stream restoration using large woody debris

Effects of habitat rehabilitation of Little Topashaw Creek, a sinuous, sand-bed stream draining 37 km² in northwest Mississippi are described. The rehabilitation project consisted of placing 72 large woody debris structures along eroding concave banks and planting 4000 willow cuttings in sandbars. Response was measured by monitoring flow, channel geometry, physical aquatic habitat, and fish populations. Initially, debris structures reduced high flow velocities at concave bank toes, preventing further erosion and inducing deposition. Physical response during the first year following construction included creation of sand berms along eroding banks and slight increases in base flow water width and depth. Fish collections showed assemblages typical of incising streams within the region, but minor initial responses to debris addition were evident. Progressive failure of the structures and renewed erosion were observed during the second year after construction.     

Scale effects and constraints for sound production in katydids (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae): correlated evolution between morphology and signal parameters

Male katydids (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) produce mating calls by rubbing the wings together, using specialized structures in their forewings (stridulatory file, scraper and mirror). A large proportion of species (ca. 66%) reported in the literature produces ultrasonic signals as principal output. Relationships among body size, generator structures and the acoustic parameters carrier frequency (f_c) and pulse duration (p_d), were studied in 58 tropical species that use pure‐tone signals. A comparative analysis, based on the only available katydid phylogeny, shows how changes in sound generator form are related to changes in f_c and p_d. Anatomical changes of the sound generator that might have been selected via f_c and p_d are mirror size, file length and number of file teeth. Selection for structures of the stridulatory apparatus that enhance wing mechanics via file‐teeth and scraper morphology was crucial in the evolution of ultrasonic signals in the family Tettigoniidae.     

Scale-dependent effects of windthrow disturbance on forest arthropod communities

The effect of disturbance on local communities may operate within the context of the spatial landscape. We examined the scale-dependent effects of windthrow disturbance caused by a large typhoon on three arthropod communities in a temperate forest of Japan. Canopy arthropods were collected by beating foliage, forest-floor arthropods were collected by sweeping the vegetation, and flying arthropods were collected in Malaise traps. To assess the “functional spatial scale” at which arthropods responded to tree-fall disturbance, the gap rate was quantified at different spatial scales by sequentially enlarging the radius of a circular landscape sector in 10-m increments from 10 to 500 m. We then analyzed the responses of order richness and abundance to the gap rate for each arthropod community. The spatial scale of the significant best-fitting model, which was selected from the models fitted to the gap rate at stepwise spatial scales, was regarded as the arthropod-specific functional spatial scale. Arthropod order richness was not dependent on the gap rate. In contrast, arthropod order abundance depended significantly on the gap rate in many orders, but varied in the response direction and functional spatial scale. These order-specific, scale-dependent responses to tree-fall gaps could complicate interactions among organisms, leading to complex community organization. An understanding of the spatial processes that link the use of space by organisms with the spatial scale at which ecological processes are experienced is required to elucidate the responses of populations, communities, and biotic interactions to disturbances in a spatial landscape context.